Lake Level BlogLake Level Projections

Lake Level Projections – May 2024

By May 2, 2024

The latest lake level projections are shown below.  You will also find:

  • Links to historical lake level plots
  • Last month’s projections compared to what actually happened

The TRWD watersheds received a lot of spring rains in April that maintained system storage above 90% capacity. Most of the rain fell over our East Texas watersheds (Cedar Creek and Richland Chambers), where spillway operations to release flood waters have been ongoing since April 20th. The West Fork System (Eagle Mountain and Bridgeport) did not receive as much rain as East Texas, but on a positive note, the WF storage went up by an additional 4% (currently at 70%) and it is still rising.  The next section provides discussion on what we can expect in terms of rainfall impacting lake levels in the “From our Meteorologist” section.

Thank you for following the Lake Level Blog and check back next month for more projections.


From our Meteorologist

April Summary…

April of 2024 was warmer and wetter than normal.  Temperatures for the month of April were 3 to 4 degrees above normal with highs in the upper 80s. Spring has been active so far with a total of 7.81” at DFW airport, which is almost 3” above normal. All TRWD watersheds received generous amounts of rain in the last month, with departure from Normals ranging from +2.6″ to +6″. Cedar Creek and Richland Chambers received most of the rain in the TRWD service area. See the past 30 days rainfall totals below.

TRWD Lake Rainfall Totals though April 1, 2024

The spring rains North Texas received in the past few months has helped maintaining most of the region drought-free with only a few small areas of D0 (Abnormally Dry) remaining in the southwest.

Looking ahead…

Near-normal to above-normal conditions are expected in the month of May. Models indicate typical springtime patterns will continue through the month as indicated in the Climate Prediction Center 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day Outlooks.  In the Pacific Ocean, a transition from El Nino to neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña) is still expected with increasing odds of developing into a La Niña condition in June-August. A reminder that a La Niña typically brings drier weather to North Texas. Because of this transition, the precipitation forecast becomes more challenging in the extended spring/early summer 2024 outlook where North Texas is currently expected to be in near-normal conditions for precipitation and above-normal conditions for temperature.

Projections

Lake Bridgeport

Last Month’s Projection

Historical Lake Levels

Eagle Mountain Lake

Last Month’s Projection

Historical Lake Levels

Cedar Creek Lake

Last Month’s Projection

Historical Lake Levels

Richland-Chambers Lake

Last Month’s Projection

Historical Lake Levels

Lake Current Level Conservation Level* Level Difference**
Arlington 548.57 550.00 -1.43
Benbrook 695.80 694.00 1.80
Bridgeport 826.65 836.00 -9.35
Cedar Creek 321.91 322.00 -0.09
Eagle Mountain 648.75 649.10 -0.35
Lake Worth 592.55 594.00 -1.45
Richland-Chambers 315.23 315.00 0.23
*Conservation Level: The permitted level of water an entity is allowed to hold in a lake. Any amount above the conservation level is used for the temporary storage of flood waters and must be released downstream.
**Difference: Amount above or below conservation level.
For more information read our daily reports or the TRWD Lake Level Blog.

Check out the TRWD OneRain portal for a visualization of this information and more.

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